I would still stick by my bet as worded. For every Jimmy Wales, there are ten of thousands of people who have no odd circumstances. Combined with the much higher volume of data about recent and more verifiable people than those from a time where records were fuzzier and the fact that Wikipedia is a moving target regarding accuracy, I don't think 1 in 10,000 is unreasonable. Just the pages of every athlete competing in a major league currently would offset most anomalies.