At minimum we'll get at least one distro attempting to utilize Wayland eventually: Ubuntu. See the bottom of https://wiki.ubuntu.com/Wayland where it reads:
Canonical is investing in making Compiz Wayland-enabled and running Unity on top.
While it does not completely refute your concern of Wayland becoming vaporware, a commitment from Canonical is about as close as anything in the Linux Desktop world ever comes to being a hard milestone. Put another way: it's more reliable than a random user on the Arch forums* talking up grand plans to rebuild WMFS to work with Wayland.
*A purely random example, and not a knock on Arch forums, which are an awesome/informative place.
I think if anyone really doubts this they should spend some time programming something directly on top of Xorg to convince themselves that when the ball of mud is gone there will be at least a bit more sanity.
I haven't used the raw stream protocol directly, but if you mean Xlib, I actually find it more usable than most toolkits. (Although a big part of that is being able to use select(), whereas most toolkits force you to do everything in callbacks while the toolkit drives the main loop.)
If you've been to a few Linux conferences, you should have seen how much support Wayland had from Xorg developers. So it's here to stay, although even if it's 80% ready, there's still 80% of the work left.
And X isn't going away since we'll probably be stuck using Xwayland for quite sometime for backward-compatibility (yes they've thought of that).
Isn't it a bit early to be saying something like that? While I hope that Wayland will succeed, it has an equal chance of ending up as vaporware.