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It's hard to see what the Trump administration is doing and not assume their preferred outcome is hot war with China.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Dugin envisions the fall of China. The People's Republic of China, which represents an extreme geopolitical danger as an ideological enemy to the independent Russian Federation, "must, to the maximum degree possible, be dismantled". Dugin suggests that Russia start by taking Tibet–Xinjiang–Inner Mongolia–Manchuria as a security belt.[1] Russia should offer China help "in a southern direction – Indochina (except Vietnam, whose people is already pro-Russia), the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia" as geopolitical compensation.[9] Russia should manipulate Japanese politics by offering the Kuril Islands to Japan and provoking anti-Americanism, to "be a friend of Japan".[9] Mongolia should be absorbed into the Eurasian sphere.[9] The book emphasizes that Russia must spread geopolitical anti-Americanism everywhere: "the main 'scapegoat' will be precisely the U.S."


> The book emphasizes that Russia must spread geopolitical anti-Americanism everywhere: "the main 'scapegoat' will be precisely the U.S."

And what better way to facilitate the scapegoating of the US than having an incompetent aggressive fool in the Whitehouse.


On the back of incredibly stupid identity politics that is easy to instigate in online spaces like twitter, where all the journalists go to find out what the most important topics in people's lives are...


Yup. That is how the incompetent fool in the Whitehouse pulled it off. Scam of the century.


It kinda feels like they aren't taking time to consider the effects of their actions, and assume things will somehow work out.


“They were careless people, Tom and Daisy—they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness... and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

--The Great Gatsby


"Kinda"?


If you read Marcy Wheeler [1], she points out that the Trump administration just can't figure out how to negotiate. All three failed "deals": Harvard, Ukraine, tariffs.. there's just no ask there.

You're going to start a hot war with China demanding....what? That they reload the container ships with Shein clothing?

[1] https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/04/29/mr-art-of-the-deal-str...


Thats kind of my point -- they've been given an ultimatum that is logically impossible, and the only road left is escalation.


> the only road left is escalation.

The other road is isolation, which I find much more likely. They'll just cut us off completely and deal with it.


These are not totally exclusive — the world may isolate the USA, and the USA may escalate with anyone (or everyone) to a hot war.


China has no interest in isolating from the rest of the world, Taiwan especially.


OP meant the US. The world and its allies will isolate US. Just like they did with Soviets.


I don’t see the Chinese willing to escalate, at least not kinetically. For now, it looks more likely that they are going to let the US have enough rope to hang themselves, seize opportunities, and play the long game.


The other possibility is that there's no strategy or goal beyond the fact that Trump likes the word "tariff".


What you say sounds very disturbing, and also resonates with me in a way.

But one can still hope that the economic "warfare" won't become a literal one.

I'm not saying that I can tell how likely a real military conflict between any of China, Europe, India, Russia, the US actually is.

What I can tell is that even fellow agnostics should... pray (or hope) that this isn't the most likely scenario.

In this regard, I don't care about globalization, injustice + capitalism.

I truly just hope for the lesser evil.

Regardless of the continent, political system, leaders.


My theory is that by sufficiently pissing off allies, we get kicked out of alliances, and that lets Trump reduce military spending. Without the tit-for-tat of military spending for social programs, the federal government gets massively downsized. The end goal is shrinking the government back to levels not seen proportionally since before WW2.


The reach of the US economy to the rest of world will be back to before WW2 too. If the USA step back other countries will fill the space they leave, especially if the USA vacate the military bases in Europe. Those countries will be more free to swing to another security and economy partner.


There is nothing preventing him from bringing the fleets and the boys back to the US and cutting the budget right now. In fact, he’s doing the opposite.


My question is how it's possible to massively shrink the government without simultaneously shrinking the economy and country as a whole.

The lack of stockpiling or any other preparations before issuing the shock to the markets makes me think this is a quick sell off of the country that only benefits a few investors at the top.


Trump already agreed to increase military spending by 12%, hitting a trillion dollars a year.




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