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Totally insane.

99% or more of the people who enable Google to do what Google does are employees of Google. Same with every other company. The odds of being the founder of a successful company are probably worse than being a professional sportsball player (if only because they turn over more frequently).

Does anything good come from encouraging kids to think that they will manage to sail through life as a successful business founder rather than an employee?

Does anything good come from encouraging people to ignore the actual situation that the overwhelming majority of the population finds itself in, and instead focusing on some essentially impossible pipe dream?

Obviously, every successful company does have founders. But so does every unsuccessful company. And what actually powers every successful company are its employees, not its founders.

The absolute worst of SV thinking, personified.



> Does anything good come from encouraging kids to think that they will manage to sail through life as a successful business founder rather than an employee?

I would imagine dreaming big is pretty good for children.

A big reason for why I'm optimistic in life is because I have hope for achieving something. I truly can't imagine a life where my father/mother would only hammer in the fact that I am just an average joe and should stick to climbing the corporate ladder. Such an uninspiring take, this one. Depressing.


> I truly can't imagine a life where my father/mother would only hammer in the fact that I am just an average joe and should stick to climbing the corporate ladder. Such an uninspiring take, this one. Depressing.

That is depressing! But also not what the parent comment said -- you seem to have accidentally taken a much more severe meaning from that comment (than I did, at least).

The top-level comment is just talking about being pragmatic. It's hard to walk the line between having idealistic visions and knowing that most of them won't pan out, and probably harder still to teach walking that line to your kids. I think that's what the comment was talking about -- not advocating for falling entirely on the latter side of that line -- which, as you say, would be super depressing!


The fundamental disagreement I have with the post is the idea that you're foolish for doing something because it probably won't pan out.

So what? Why be so terrified of failure? I think it's better if kids learn to be brave, and pick themselves up in life after they stumble. Living life in utter fear of failing at anything seems like a terrible way for your children to start off life. Besides for which few things are better learning experiences than trying to start your own company.

And who knows. They might even succeed beyond their wildest dreams, as some do.


My call was not that you're foolish for doing something because it won't pan out.

It was that it is foolish to tell/teach/encourage people to expect that things like "start Google" have any reasonable likelihood of succeeding.

And it is even worse when that encourages people to fail to organize, vote, protest, push for better work and better working conditions for everybody who are not founders of unicorns.


> And it is even worse when that encourages people to fail to organize, vote, protest, push for better work and better working conditions for everybody who are not founders of unicorns.

You've lost me here. How does working at a startup make it any more difficult to do this than working at a bank or hospital? For that matter, would you discourage someone from pursuing basic research at a university or a doctorate degree because that doesn't directly advance a political agenda?


> I would imagine dreaming big is pretty good for children.

I would rather have my children dream of becoming astronauts than becoming the next Steve Jobs.


i'd argue that's entirely up to the child to dream how they see fit, and up to the parent to support them, build them up and keep a pulse on what the thing is they're focusing on


Most kids want to be social media influencers.

But I do not think most kids today, once adults, will be very happy with their parents if they just blindly support them in that dream, neglecting other realistic career possibilities in blind faith that their kid will be a star.

I'm not saying you should tell your kid 'no! you can't be, I won't let you.' - but like, maybe nudge them in the right direction, have them meet influencers and hear how hard the job actually can be, hear how lucky/unfair who becomes popular and successful can be - then if they are comfortable with and understand those risks, support them in any way possible after that.


To be fair, becoming a social media influencer isn’t all that conceptually different from becoming a movie star, a professional athlete, a famous musician, or other type of celebrity entertainer. Maybe even marginally more attainable.

Funny enough is successful people like pg themselves become essentially social media influencers after they’ve achieved things. Fame and following are the next pursuit after wealth.


i was hoping it's obvious that as a parent you should still keep guardrails around them but i also specifically mentioned

> and keep a pulse on what the thing is they're focusing on


I find the level-headed realism and appreciation of those of us who work in OP's post refreshing, and the solipsism and wishful thinking of your post depressing.


what a weird comment. my entire drive to want to be a business owner is fueled by the desire to be free from inept senior leadership, bad managers and bloated hierarchy mixed with building something people love that stems from my own head. not sure how that translates to solopsism. also, optimism and desire to think big (even if i fail) is depressing to you? you should probably seek therapy, dude


People deserve dignity and meaning from their labor no matter what sort of work they do. This should not be reserved for those who manage to start unicorns (let alone Googles).

It might interest you to know what I was employee #2 at amzn.


If everybody became an entrepreneur then we wouldn't have scientists working on our biggest technological problems.


(for most research you need a lot of money and people, so out of reach of startups)


Eh, maybe it is good to learn that you're not destined to anything grand early on. It gives you resilience, and builds character. Teaches you to value the small things in life.

It can be a lot more depressing to learn you are a loser well into your adulthood, after a long time of thinking very highly of yourself.


If you’re a prominent VC that’s exactly what you want to happen though, it will let you spread your bets even more.

But like you said, this is peak SV. Luckily there is a whole world outside of SV where the rest of us operate :)


I can’t disagree more.

I’ve founded failed startups. I don’t regret a single one of them. I’ve worked at failed startups and big companies and I learned more and had more fun at the startups than I ever did at a big company.

The point is, if you try to found a company, you don’t have to make a billion dollars to consider it a success. In terms of personal growth it’s easily the equal of any big company job.


One thing I'd add to this, as a Business Management graduate… college won't teach anywhere near as much about business as starting a business will.

You'll get FAR MORE practical and useful knowledge doing it yourself, and being exposed to other businesses.

Most of what you'd get from college can be had reading a handful of well-written books on the subject.


Starting a successful company is not an essentially impossible pipe dream. There are literally millions of businesses in the US that are generating millions in revenue.

Sure, they aren't all mega behemoth tech companies, but what of it? Setting your ambitions high when you're young is still worth it. It can be a major difference maker in motivating you to learn the skills necessary to build a successful business, and it turns out that those same skills are helpful for landing good jobs, too.

Most of the people I know who are doing well now dreamed relatively big when they were young. And many of the people I know who stress about making ends meet never had anyone telling them to aim high when they were young.

If you believe you can, you might try, and you might make it. If you believe you can't, it's madness to true, so you won't try, and you won't make it. These are basic building blocks of motivation and success.

Your pessimistic message could be applied to anything. Why try to build the next Google? It's impossible! Why try to build a smaller business? The odds are against you! Why try to get a high-paying job? Most people work average jobs! Why go for an average job? You're competing with the vast majority of the country! Why get a less-than-average job? It's so stressful and barely worth it.


> If you believe you can, you might try, and you might make it.

The statistics are pretty clear that you almost certainly will not.

So by all means give it a shot if you can do so without screwing your chance at whatever you'll do if/when it fails.

People deserve dignity and meaning no matter what work they do. This should not be reserved to the folks who manage to start unicorns (let alone Googles).


"Aim for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars."

This is an area where I think this quote applies.

Don't reach Google status and build the next $1T company? Okay, maybe you'll make a unicorn. Don't make a unicorn? Maybe you'll start a $100M company. Or a $10M company. Or a $1M company. Or hell, a $100k company is a hell of an achievement.

And if you fail to do that? Well congratulations, you're eminently employable. Because on your way to "failure," you likely taught yourself a lot about code/tech, work either, managing people, raising money, marketing, and business, to say nothing of the professional contacts you made along the way.

I haven't met founders who feel that by starting and failing companies they have "screwed their chance" at something, at least not in a professional capacity.

One caveat (and it's a big one) is people going all in* on startups in their 20s, neglecting their health and relationships.


If 10000 more kids shoot for the moon they’ll build a lot of skills that the equivalent lifers won’t. He’s saying things like:

- Get good at tech - Build projects that you want - Get good grades and into the best university you can

I really hope my kid does that. I tried incredibly hard at projects I loved. That built me untold skills. Who cares if they start Google, or fail and get a job or get aquihired, they’ll be fine. They’ll know what their boss wants. They won’t just sit and bitch about parking. And at the back of their minds they might remember that this isn’t the only way to live so maybe they’ll be braver than they would otherwise.


Fine. I share similar goals and dreams with my kids (who are all grown adults now). But what's the point of dangling "start Google" as some sort of imaginary incentive for this, when the real incentives and benefits almost certainly come from elsewhere.


> Does anything good come from encouraging people to ignore the actual situation that the overwhelming majority of the population finds itself in, and instead focusing on some essentially impossible pipe dream?

If one is trying to recruit future Sergeys Larrys, then it’s prudent to write to a very narrow audience.

This article addresses that audience perfectly well, imho.

> The absolute worst of SV thinking, personified.

… or maybe the best.

This is not “general life advice from pg”. It’s highly targeted and narrow.

That’s ok. That needs to be ok. It’s one of those things that makes SV unique and uniquely strong, imho.

Edited to add the following:

The advice goes from broad (you don’t have to get a job, you can start your own company) to very specific (how to start a hypergrowth startup), with lots of other (good, imho) advice in between.

This will resonate with some folks in the (ostensibly high school) audience, many of whom may be unfamiliar with startups, the startup world, and maybe even the tech world in general. It will fall on deaf ears for most of the rest, because that’s not the life or lifestyle they are looking for.


To observers it looks like they missed but observers don't really want to put themselves in the shoes of him who is about to take the shot. In that moment the observer can only win by onlooking, either be reassured that failure is near certain and all risk folly or the observer can be surprised and glad to see the consuming world birth another product.

From a psychological standpoint not aiming high would have been a bigger miss to the person taking the shot. They clearly chose risk no matter how they sulk afterwards.

The ratio of posts about "work-purpose porn" for employee bees and pipe dream madness for misfits is never going to satisfy everyone on HN.


I think your argument is flawed. By the time a company is successful, it has around 100-1000 employees. If those employees are all sampled from the same statistical population, any individual randomness in employee quality will wash out when averaged over 100+ people. So how come a successful company A has better employees than a failed company B?

Maybe a big part of the founders' skill is to actually hire the right management which in turn is capable of hiring the right employees. In which case, the credit goes to the founders after all.

Or maybe the quality of employees does not vary that much (after controlling for the the obvious factors like location / funding / business area). In which case, the company's success is explained by something else. Again, founders' skill? Or maybe something else?

I tend to think that it's a combination of founders' skill and being lucky to start the right business at the right time. I'd understand if others put greater weight on the founders or greater weight on luck.


Startups are high-risk high-reward. That doesn't necessarily mean they're a bad idea. Expected value can be positive even when probability is low. Moreover, a lot of young people can afford to take a chance on something. If you spend a few years living with your parents and attempting to create something, and you fail, you still have several decades of your life to go punch a clock at Big Corp.

And even if you fail to become Google, you might still make a living. Some people would gladly make a modest income doing something they love, with the possibility of making more, rather than working for someone else making three times as much but doing something they hate.

As for what good comes of it, just think about it. Where do new companies come from? Should we have no more of them? What would happen then?


I think one should argue that starting a business is high risk, mediocre reward. Most businesses just kinda trudge along, not leaving with the fairy tale returns of FAANG. Those are unicorns for a reason. Most of the businesses I've worked for, some of the founders are still working there and while they are pretty well off, they either havent sold yet (no big payday) or they made a meager sale netting them a very good pay, but probably averaged less than an engineer in SV on a 10 year horizon.


It's expecting the high reward which is high risk. Creating a small business that can trudge along and pay you a modest salary is fairly common.


PG's post was called "How to start Google"


And starting Google is the high-risk high-reward thing.


> Startups are high-risk high-reward

In SV, if you’re a founder then it’s medium-risk, high-reward. You’ll be propped up by investor funding, have acquihire>exec as escape route, and in the slim chance of actual success you’ll range from rich to mega-rich.

For non-founders (employees) it’s high-risk medium-reward. An acquihire will make you a rank-and-file employee, and if the startup is a true success you might still only bag a moderate sum, thanks to your tiny sub-percent of equity. Only huge IPOs bring wealth to non-founders.


The idea behind VC is to lessen the individual financial risk. VC can work but it takes a lot more money than typically offered.


> Does anything good come from encouraging kids to think that they will manage to sail through life as a successful business founder rather than an employee?

I think it probably has a lot to do with the US being the number 1 economy in the world so yes, it does appear to have society-wide benefits. Does it have personal benefits? I think this is probably more controversial. I suspect some people push themselves too hard and would have been happier otherwise, whereas others do indeed benefit from this advice. I suspect that the users of HN probably fall in the latter category.


I think this distills the crux of the equivocation inherent to this kind of reasoning

Being "the number 1 economy in the world" (Actually kind of debatable by some metrics, but that's beside the point) is a measure of the power of the few that hold it, not the general living conditions of the populace. "Society-wide benefits" being the same as having the richest aggregate economy is to say the least pretty dubious


That is such a good point. It distracts us from thinking about what our industry really needs right now which is unionization and regulation. The risk of off shore outsourcing and AI and imminent. These kind of posts provide false promises of riches.

I also want to point out it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that most founders come from well off backgrounds. Their parents can essentially foot the bills while they're getting things off the ground combined w/ the natural access to capital growing up in wealthy circles provides.


The odds are actually pretty reasonable if you go to a school like MIT or Harvard. I know its hard for outsiders to grasp, but this is the reality. PG even explicitly calls it out.


I just posted on X that every high school in Michigan should spend a day discussing startups, even if it truly reaches one kid in fifty the payoff would be immense.

Currently Michigan's idea of business development is to write big checks to folks who promise thousands of jobs.

Yet when the automobile industry got started in Michigan no one wrote them any government checks yet it became our largest industry. We can do much better and more startups is the answer.


The essay isn't called "How to optimize your likelihood of retiring comfortably"

> You can't know whether it will turn into a company worth billions or one that goes out of business. So when I say I'm going to tell you how to start Google, I mean I'm going to tell you how to get to the point where you can start a company that has as much chance of being Google as Google had of being Google.


... and that chance is essentially extremely close to zero.

People seem to think that Google is some sort of existence proof that there's a non-zero chance (and perhaps even quite a good one) of starting a company with this level of success.

And they are correct.

However, this is not the same probability at all as the chance that your company will turn out like that.


99% or more of the people who enable Google to do what Google does are employees of Google. Same with every other company. The odds of being the founder of a successful company are probably worse than being a professional sportsball player (if only because they turn over more frequently).

Depends on the size of company. A small company maybe is more probable than being a top athlete.


It doesn't matter, though. If you follow that advice, you'll probably be more successful as an employee.


This is a very strange comment to make on the Y combinator link sharing site. A site started as a space for a community of founders and aspiring founders to share their inspiration, ideas and stories. And you're responding to an article written by the founder of that community.


This community’s relationship and attitudes towards its founders have varied and shifted wildly since its founding. The content shared on this site have also changed over time.


> Does anything good come from encouraging kids to think that they will manage to sail through life as a successful business founder rather than an employee?

Yes, VCs flourish by it.


when i was the kids' age, a teacher told us "aim at the stars, you might at least reach the moon" and i always found it motivating




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