Hard to say something complex like a dictatorship gets overturned by just one variable. I much more favor the view laid out in "Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction" by Jack A. Goldstone.
> There are five elements that create an unstable social equilibrium: economic or fiscal strain, alienation and opposition among the elites, widespread popular anger at injustice, a persuasive shared narrative of resistance, and favorable international relations.
With those in mind, Iran doesn't seem that close to a revolution, yet.
Two of the conditions (economic or fiscal strain + popular anger at injustice) seem to be met in Iran, plus the third one (narrative of resistance) is somewhat met, as Shi'a cultures tend to regard martyrdom highly and current governmental repression created a lot of martyrs.
I don't believe that all five conditions have to be met in order to see a revolution. In plenty of places like Portugal in 1974 or South Korea in the 1980s, situation was much less dire than in Iran today.
Portugal was in Europe, South Korea had the support of USA.
Iran economic conditions are created mostly by the west imposing sanctions.
Popular anger is a minority yet, we see it a lot because it benefits the western propaganda, I'm quite sure it's not as widespread in Iran, not because of censorship alone, but because the majority still believe that the real enemy is the western corruption.
We've seen it in Afghanistan, a war created by the US without a real motivation that Obama transformed into a liberation of the afghan people which in the end turned into bringing some woman from Kabul with their kids to the west to live like western women, leaving behind their traditions and husbands while the majority of the people lived in small rural villages and hoped for the Talibans to return and bring back their way of life. And it finally happened, for two reasons
- it costed too much, despite the people always saying that freedom has no price, it obviously has one and it's not very high
- American soldiers were dying for the cause and there was nothing of economic value on the table to die for
We should stop meddling with other people's revolutions, if Iran will revolt it should be because Iranian people have done it.
> There are five elements that create an unstable social equilibrium: economic or fiscal strain, alienation and opposition among the elites, widespread popular anger at injustice, a persuasive shared narrative of resistance, and favorable international relations.
With those in mind, Iran doesn't seem that close to a revolution, yet.