It's been a bit of a horse race. SpaceX was kind of in the lead for a while but then their capsule's thruster blew up in a ground test which set them back several months. Then Boeing failed their test flight which let SpaceX get back in the lead.
Except Boeing's Starliner so far has cost Nasa almost 2X as much as SpaceX, and is aiming for prices at around 2/3 more per astronaut (55mil SpaceX vs 90mil Boeing).
If it's a horse rase, the plough horse is neck-and-neck with the thoroughbred.
