Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

unless the world plans to stay isolated until there is a cure this may be the alternative that doesnt also bankrupt a lot of businesses and put people out of work.


There will be pockets that will see this carry on for years globally. Currently it is mostly prevalent in climates in their winter phase months, and UK just entered spring.

Then there is this virus mutating, could it mutate into something less harmful, or something more harmful.

Past pandemic the spanish flu saw the initial infection decline in the summer and in the winter saw a higher wave of infections and deaths - which would be at a time when health services with climate phases tend to be less able to handle extra volume.

Policy seems to be around accepting people will die, no escaping that or dressing that up and to manage infected and control the spread and managing response/restrictions accordingly. So by managing the effected numbers needing medical intervention and dragging out the first seasonal phase so that the summer months lul can be used to level out the impact down the line.


It is very much more likely that, as it mutates, it will be to a less-deadly virus.

Evolutionary pressure works that way -- as a less-deadly version will spread faster and outcompete a more-deadly version (because it won't kill as many hosts -- dead hosts cease spreading -- and because less-ill hosts are less likely to stay in bed until better, thus encountering more people and thus more spread)

This is why, broadly, endemic diseases like influenza become less lethal over time

It's why severe influenzas are usually those that just mutated to cross over to humans from some other animal -- like swine flu from last decade, which was not that deadly to swine, but remarkably so to humans those first seasons, or avian flus which also have appeared occasionally.

The Spanish Flu was one of those -- an Avian flu that had newly mutated to infect humans.


Spanish Flu mutated into a far deadlier version over time because it spread faster in hospitals and troop transports than on the streets. We may see a similar situation with corona virus if the quarantines and social distancing are too effective. Ideally, we want most cases to be transmitted from the weak cold-like corona virus cases, not the lung-infesting killer cases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave


To quote that article:

In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus.


Given that, the UK policy seems to make more sense now, thank you.


The problem is that nobody knows whether this virus will behave like that. Flu does, as did SARS. But MERS has no issues with killing people in Saudi Arabia in 50 degrees Celsius.

That this virus is prevalent during winter time is simply a coincidence - it has started in November and most countries affected happen to be in the northern hemisphere where we are coming into spring only now. However, there are documented cases in Australia and New Zealand too - which have late summer now.


Once testing procedures are prevalent, and the curve has been bent, there is no reason why you cannot continue largely as usual well before a cure or vaccine exists.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: