As mostly user of commercial software, it hardly affects me, but it is going to be interesting to watch when all copyleft software gets into a niche and we get back what was basically shareware and PD on the home computing scene.
I am predicting that non-copyleft licenses will replace all uses of copyleft licenses, and everyone will get basic functionality in open source with juice bits only avaiable in the commercial versions, just like in the old days before of the rise of GPL.
The evolution of BSD's adoption by commercial entities shows the way.
I hope you're wrong. The strength of Linux, Apache, and AGPL points the other way. It's almost impossible to get a chip from the likes of Rockchip or Mediatek without a Linux and/or Android bistro attached. GPL-style licenses on IoT systems may be an important part of the only way to avoid an apocalypse of compromised crapware IoT devices.
The more serious problem is the weaponization of open source by the big actors, using it to simultaneously generate a scorched-earth moat around their respective castles while hiding proprietary extensions behind a network connection. I do not consider this to have been good for the software world at all.
As I'm sure you know your prediction has been made for 30 years. Doesn't mean it can't come true but unlike you I don't see the tide moving that way.
The affero license is useful for things accessed over the web, which of course became quite important and thankfully the GPL catching up.
I wrote the library license back in the early 90s because of a similar shift (Unix and Windows were late adopters of the the philosophy of libraries, not just programs, for non- system code, but once they finally started to get on board the GPL had to catch up)
