I would say the claim that AI is going to replace most white collar work a very snake-oily term. The technology behind it however is very compelling and interesting.
I don't know enough about most white collar work to make any predictions. But I know a lot about software development and information technology because I've been a professional since 1995. The claims being made about AI's impact on that profession do not seem at all snake-oily to me.
I'm not sure if this was Flux, but one of those AI EDA tool companies had a somewhat absurd ad where the narrator stated the AI tool told them a capacitor was being used to block DC, and that's something they never learned while getting an EE degree. Now, I don't have an EE degree, but I feel like how capacitors interact with AC and DC are sort of "passive components 101" that even hobbyists learn quite early on.
The EDA space doesn't strike me as being anywhere near as SWE when it comes to AI.
definitely! it has the advantage that it can run CUDA kernels but on the other hand it has lower memory bandwidth and probably loses a token/s fight for many LLMs.
The interesting thing about living in a big city in Texas (and now basically all the big cities in TX lean left, not just Austin) is that the tension between city governments and the state, while frustrating at times and definitely dangerous for certain populations (I know folks with transgender kids who have moved out of TX solely for that reason), actually provides something of a decent balance that is appealing to a lot of educated professionals. I feel like a lot of the worst impulses of Dem-run cities get moderated in TX compared to west coast, Dem-run states.
For example, you can look at the housing crises in most CA cities brought on by NIMBY liberal policies, and while Austin is still very expensive, they (IMO) took the only sane approach to skyrocketing housing costs by actually building a shit ton of housing over the past few years. Austin passed a plastic bag ban a while back that was eventually overturned by the state legislature, but in the meantime a lot of people still bring their own reusable bags (stores can still charge for bags) and I've noticed much less bag pollution in creaks and streams compared to 15 years ago.
Of course, it remains to be seen what happens in the near future. The Republican party in TX is now fully showing their complete moral bankruptcy by nominating the criminal Ken Paxton for Senate, so we'll see if they fall further down the personality cult or if they eventually break.
Blue city in red state has been a winning combination for at least a decade. As you say, however, the recent push towards criminalizing random shit has started corrupting that balance. There are simply too many voters who are fine tearing everything down if it hurts the other team more than theirs. Democrats have those in the far left. But in the GOP, that wing controls the party.
> actually provides something of a decent balance that is appealing to a lot of educated professionals. I feel like a lot of the worst impulses of Dem-run cities get moderated in TX compared to west coast, Dem-run states.
This is true in Georgia as well. There has generally been a productive working relationship between the Democratic mayor in Atlanta and the typically republican/conservative democrat governor. That includes Kemp and Dickens (corrected) today. Back in 2017, former Mayor Shirley Franklin--who was very popular and highly effective--endorsed independent Mary Norwood for mayor over democrat Keisha Lance-Bottoms.
And in DC, Mayor Muriel Bowser works very well with Trump. They have a common interest in cleanliness and order. She’s done a great job of renovating major parks, cleaning up homeless encampments, cooperating with ICE and the national guard, and making much needed progress on construction projects. It’s been shocking to see projects like the McPherson Square Park renovation completed on time with beautiful results.
Trump is Bowser’s sin eater. She’ll publicly say the national guard isn’t needed in DC, then quietly sign an order extending their deployment. She’ll say ICE is too aggressive, then bury a proposal to end DC’s status as a sanctuary city in a budget proposal: https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2025/05/28/dc-mayo.... By far the best mayor of DC in my lifetime.
I was just in New York. NYU has been recruiting Texas robotics professors. Political volatility and funding cuts for research aren’t exactly fertile ground for an advanced economy.
Right after Covid, both Texas and Florida saw a huge influx of talent. That seems to have stabilized (and caused a political backlash), with both retaining advantages, but Texas retreating back to energy and Florida to tourism. (They both have token tech scenes, with Austin holding ground against Boston and Seattle.)
I will also tell you, as someone who works at a company that's trying to remain profitable, that token spend has caught the eyes of finance and much like cloud spend they've already started applying pressure to control costs. This May my team is protected to use 30% fewer tokens than we did in April - this was by intention. I suspect we'll drop more in June.
I expect in the future, when these AI companies stop subsidizing costs, the idea of spinning up 20 agents to work on some brain fart idea that you throw out after looking closer will come to an end. It'll be seen like assigning developers on work that hasn't been properly planned for or reviewed.
You have it backwards. You’d benefit tremendously from fixed PTO that pays out because you’re taking fewer than 10 days a year. Its biggest benefactors are low-seniority employees who take 20-30 days annually.
If you're not guitar gear nerd, you might be unaware: Fender doesn't make the best version of its various guitar shapes (with one debatable exception)[1]. If you want an off-the-rack "S-Style" guitar (Stratocaster) there's a handful of premium, smaller brands that will make an objectively better guitar than any of Fender's offerings, including their premium "Ultra" series: Suhr, Anderson Guitarworks, James Tyler Guitars, Seuf, Shabat, LsL, Mario Martin, etc.
If Fender gets the industry to capitulate and abandon its shapes, there's a very real chance it does long-term reputational damage to the brand. Not due to lawsuit outrage but due to something much simpler: consumers and musicians no longer associating new production S-style guitars as great electric guitars. Today, the boutique builders Fender is suing do quite a bit to uphold the reputation of those shapes. Without them they're just designs of a legacy brand that mostly sells mid-market import guitars.
[1] That possible exception are Masterbuilt-tier instruments made by Fender's Custom Shop https://www.fender.com/pages/custom-shop The wait time is several months and the price starts around $8K USD and quickly pushes into 5 figures.
I disagree completely with the idea that people only still think of Fender-style guitars as good because of boutique builders. Not that I disagree with the premise that boutique builders are making better guitars for better prices. But rich engineers and lawyers play boutique guitars - almost everyone else, including most professional musicians, still play Fenders (or one of the other big mainstream brands).
Fender and even Squier workmanship is fine. Their fundamental designs are both good and iconic. In truth, most guitars on the market these days are pretty good and people mostly just choose the one that makes them feel cool and part of a musical community and lineage. So people would continue to gravitate towards Fender-style guitars for literal generations, as long as guitarists revere the legion of Fender players before them.
I say “would” because the damage here is IMO reputational. It doesn’t matter how much guitarists revere Hendrix, Gilmour, Clapton, and a zillion other legendary Strat players if enough word gets around that Fender guitars are made by assholes. They’ll stop making people feel cool. Corporate lawfare is extremely not rock ‘n’ roll.
Marketing is very effective, and lots of people are willing to pay a little bit more for a particular brand.
On the other hand there's also lots of people who will look for the best value for the money, or want to support smaller luthiers.
As you mentioned usually with experience one gravitates towards the second group, but most instrument purchases is entry level gear for beginners.
Disclaimer: coming from classical guitar world, but have noticed largely the same pattern, eg someone paying more for an Alhambra when a regional luthier will be less. Not that Alhambra is a bad brand, just that those marketing salaries have to come from somewhere!
As far as I know it's mostly rich hobbyists or people purchasing for decoration that buy Fenders just because of name recognition. Almost everyone else gets guitars from small custom shops because they're cheaper, better built, and you're not stuck with a single bridge style and two choices of pickups. That's if they don't just buy off the rack stuff from ESP or Ibanez, who have absolutely devoured Fender's market share in the under $2,000 category. Which incidentally is the largest consumer base. The only thing Fender sells consistently is the Telecaster and the Jaguar, both of which people prefer off the shelf versions of rather than getting from the custom shop because you can't really mess with the design of either without drastically altering the sound.
If you want an example of when this kind of lawsuit backfires and causes reputational loss like you say, look at Gibson. A few years ago they sued Music Man, First Act, Jackson, Dean, and a few others over the "flying V" design that came out in 1958 and had already been genericized by the early '80s. They won on trademark grounds against Dean and the resulting fear over the other open lawsuits caused a few Flying V and Explorer lookalikes to go out of production. Since then anyone who remembers the ordeal has warned people away from ever purchasing their guitars. Gibson were in terrible but improving condition in 2024 having just left bankruptcy in 2019 and the fallout from the lawsuit being revived last year has massively hurt their sales and left them right on the track to death again.
> But rich engineers and lawyers play boutique guitars - almost everyone else, including most professional musicians, still play Fenders (or one of the other big mainstream brands).
I'm familiar with this stereotype but two things:
1) Based on the data I've seen, a higher percentage of a boutique brand's guitars are purchased by working musicians than the mainstream brands. They're such a small segment of the market however those musicians seem rare by comparison.
2) Hobbyists, across all income levels, are responsible for the vast majority of gear sold. The working musician is really just collecting the "discount" from economies of scale afforded by this phenomena.
Is it an asshole move to protect a trademark? The bottom line is that the pop and pop and boutique shops are riding on the coattails of Fender's design. Why don't they come up with a new, iconic design instead?
Fender has cannibalized their brand, just like Ray-Ban and many other manufacturers known for a "classic" design.
But what's changed recently is that now they're not just feeling the competition from premium-priced guitars; they're getting squeezed from the low end, sub-$1K part of the market coming from China and Indonesia. Recently I played a Chinese made Telecaster copy that was better in terms of quality and playability than any sub-Masterbuilt Fender. The fit, finish, and fretwork were all dramatically better than any Fender I've played (Fender also manufactures guitars in China and Indonesia).
I'm a huge fan of the Esquire, Telecaster, and Stratocaster. It's a shame to see a once-great American brand get cooked by resorting to lawfare instead of QC.
> they're getting squeezed from the low end, sub-$1K part of the market coming from China and Indonesia.
This was true in the 80s with Japanese competition as well (the last time Fender tried putting the body shapes back in the box) - Tokei and friends were making vastly better guitars than even the American Fender production at that point.
The way Fender survived was by buying the top producers and forming Squier guitars as their entry level.
> It's a shame to see a once-great American brand get cooked by resorting to lawfare instead of QC.
They did this in the past too, largely over the headstock shape. My "main" Stratocaster-type guitars (despite owning several genuine Fenders of different vintages) are a pair of Levinson Blade R4s - one has the Fender-shape headstock and the other has a modified version from after Levinson got sued in the 90s.
So why not license the shape then? They could do a royalty with those deemed of quality and deny a license to those that are of lower quality and then sue them if they don't use the design. This would allow them to manage quality with lower reputational harm.
Because - until it makes its way through the courts - it’s not established that Fender has the rights to claim ownership of on the shape in the first place.
In the US, there’s three routes for that - design patent, trade dress and artistic copyright. AFAIK they don’t have a design patent. Trade dress is hard to prove association - would most people on the street say “yep, that’s 100% a Stratocaster” if they say the outline? Probably not. The shape isn’t separate from the functionality so artistic copyright hasn’t upheld either. The fact that Fender has not successfully enforced copyright concerns for over 70 years is also a sign that they never had IP protection on the shape.
In the US, I'm pretty sure they have no protection. They lost a US case to establish a trademark in 2009 [1] (2009 article title says copyright, but text is about a trademark suit). A design patent would have expired, unless it was filed in 1954 and was pending until recently or is still pending... US patents filed before 1995 don't start their validity period until issuance, but that'd be a big stretch.
It's possible there's a US copyright claim, but on a 1954 design, you would have to have registered it, marked the works with the copyright (on at least most of the copies), and timely renewed. There's also, IMHO, a solid question of if US copyright applies to the shape of a guitar. If they had a strong case, I think they would have tried to enforce on it in 2009 when they tried to enforce on trademark.
There’s a story, possibly apocryphal, that the first electric guitar demo was a bunch of strings nailed to some basic lumber and it received a negative reception. The designer went home, tore apart his acoustic guitar and mounted the electronics inside. The sound was not changed by this. The critical reception however was much improved. And the rest is history.
The shape might not be purely functional—and that seems to be the basis for their attempted lawsuit.
The "log" (generally dated to 1941) is the railroad sleeper ("tie" for Americans?) with wings made in the Epiphone factory in Manhattan attached to the side, and is in the Country Music Hall of Fame in Nashville. This is the guitar that Gibson turned down until Fender and Bigsby (via Merle Travis) popularized the solid body guitar.
The predecessor was a single string on a piece of actual rail and two spikes, amplified by a telephone receiver in the mid-late 1920s.
well, in the US, those shapes were ruled public domain.
in Germany, Fender recently won a default ruling because a chinese counterfeiter didn't even show up in court, and they're now using that to go after anyone selling in the EU, even though that's not really what that case win means. But private equity is going to private equity.
They'd have to do something more complex like licensing the shape + name at the same time, since they do own "Stratocaster". Not sure how big of a demand there is for the name though, or if Fender was even interested in licensing that part.
Fender does this with their headstock design for replacement necks only. However they forbid license-holding manufacturers from both selling a complete guitar with a Fender headstock shape and even showing the guitar neck on a finished guitar during the sale process.
I got some (bad?) news for you: Most Americans are either in complete denial over this or genuinely don't care. They don't think the wealth and lifestyles they enjoy have anything to do with the US' status as a global hegemon. Some even think the relationship is inverted, believing that as the world de-Americanizes, Americans will somehow benefit from this.
> Some even think the relationship is inverted, believing that as the world de-Americanizes, Americans will somehow benefit from this.
That may well be true of the working class, who receive nothing from the foreign income multinational corporations earn but face more competition to buy housing from the people who do receive a share, and more competition for jobs from foreigners (both immigration and globalization).
> They don't think the wealth and lifestyles they enjoy have anything to do with the US' status as a global hegemon.
> The people who hold these views are overwhelmingly not members of the working class. They're retirees or Gen-Xers coming off their peak earning years.
That implies young working class people think their lives would be worse if America does not remain a global hegemon.
I'd love to see your sources for that claim. That is not my impression. I have seen little if any support for American hegemony among the young.
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